I wanted to take a break from the usual news-o-rama recap, and pound out this column that has been curdling along with the egg nog and Irish Whiskey in my brain.
Predictions are always a dicey game, and I'm a natural coward. So, instead of predicting what will happen, I'm going to predict what I think won't happen in 2008. Don't worry, it's not all doom and pessimism - sometimes the trades or moves that aren't made are the best ones.
1. The Browns will not get a top five pick for Derek Anderson
He's simply not worth it, and any NFL GM worth a tenth of his salary will be able to watch Anderson on tape to see this. Anderson has been helped immeasurably by Pro Bowl talent in front of him on the offensive line and running amok in opposing defensive backfields. The Browns quarterback has been a very pleasant surprise, but is inconsistent enough to dissuade other NFL teams from mortgaging their future to get him. There's an outside possibility that an NFL exec will look at Anderson and see another Brett Favre, but I doubt it.
There is nothing to rumors that the Dolphins are considering getting rid of their top pick for Anderson. That organization is beyond confused at this point and has no idea what they want to order for lunch, much less what they'll do with their top pick in the draft. Draft selections start spiking in hype and importance the second the season ends, and Parcells is too canny to settle on setting a value on the draft's top pick in December.
2. Rob Chudzinski will not leave to be an NFL head coach
As impressive as the young offensive coordinator has been, he's under a three-year contract and can continue to solidify his reputation while working with some impressive talent. Openings in places like Atlanta are certain death for a young head coach, and there's a sense that Chudzinski himself realizes that he could benefit from a few more years of seasoning before stepping up to the next rung. He has little to lose by staying as OC of the quickly rising Browns and waiting for the right opportunity to open up.
3. The Browns will not descend back into pre-2007 levels of ineptitude
This might seem a slam dunk, but the Browns will face a number of challenges in 2008 that they avoided this season. Romeo Crennel's crew really had a long-overdue fortunate year in 2007. The team managed to stay away from crippling injuries - think about how the season would have gone if Joe Thomas or Braylon Edwards had been hurt - and benefited from a fourth-place schedule and games against the weak NFC West.
Next season, the injury luck is unlikely to be as good, and the Browns will face a sterner schedule.
At the same time, the team's good fortune is not strictly to credit for their rise. GM Phil Savage has improved the level of talent up and down the team's roster, to the point where other NFL clubs are keeping an eye on who the Browns release and raiding their practice squad. Improved talent evaluation has been the key difference since 2005, and Savage's plan is slightly ahead of schedule. I look for the team to make significant moves in their defensive front seven during the off-season. Depth and strength in the trenches will prevent the team from stepping significantly backwards in 2008, even if circumstances stop them from improving significantly on their 2007 W-L record.
4. The Browns will not obtain DT Albert Haynesworth
Grabbing Haynesworth would not only immediately bolster the Browns front seven, but it would also cripple another AFC team which is on the rise. But it won't happen.
Titans head coach Jeff Fisher hasn't survived as long as he has while working for goofball owner Bud Adams by letting quality players slip away. Haynesworth will be franchised or re-signed, and will not escape Nashville.
In addition, there are legitimate questions about Hayneworth's fit on the Browns. He doesn't seem a nice fit with the type of straight-arrow player that Savage prefers, and there are open questions about how he would perform with a nice long-term contract in hand. Even on the off-chance Haynesworth becomes available, there's a question about how hard the Browns would charge in pursuit.
5. Browns offerings on TV and Radio will not significantly improve
The flaccid state of mainstream media (MSM) offerings can be seen in the two different types of programming which has emerged. The first type of programs are largely team-controlled offerings on venues like WTAM and Cleveland Indians-owned Sports Time Ohio, where business deals between the club and media outlets create bland and uninspired programming utilizing team employees or employees of their flagships. As an alternative, there are relatively independent programs on outlets like FSN Ohio and WKNR, which, like their "official" counterparts, remain uncluttered of any real value. As long as these MSM outlets either climb into the team's pockets or recycle the same-old personalities and programming that has been boring us for the last fifteen years, don't expect any worthwhile change.
What does it say about the state of Cleveland sports programming that the lead sportstalk host on the team's "flagship" station cannot provide any worthwhile insight that isn't spawned by his slavish worship of the Lerner family? Or that the lead sportstalker on the city's independent sports station has now apparently become the local outlet for the laughably unreliable ProFootballTalk.com? Browns fans have become used to weak programming, bogus rumors, and dull repetition, and I don't foresee any real change. Fortunately, the fans are blessed with solid print coverage of the team from pros like Jeff Schudel, Tony Grossi, Steve Doerschuck and others.
6. Jamal Lewis won't quickly sign a one-year contract with the Browns
Don't believe everything you read regarding future financial decisions of athletes. Or much of it, frankly. While Jamal Lewis is undoubtedly happy with how his bounce-back season has gone, it would be foolish for him to quickly agree to a reasonably-sized one-year deal with the Browns. Lewis will receive the right advice for his career and will test the free agent market.
Lewis will only return for a one-year deal if he doesn't get something better around the league. This is an outside possibility, giving the availability of Michael Turner and a relatively deep draft class. In addition, teams have seen a lot of success without spending a great deal at the running back position, and the market may be somewhat down. If that turns out to be the case, Lewis is a possibility to return. Lewis' agent, however, would be foolish to allow him to sign a short-term deal without seeing if any other NFL club is willing to give him a nice four-year contract.
7. Neither cable or NFL owners will back down on the NFL Network
Even today, as the NFL announced public availability of the Patriots-Giants game, the league's Greed-Off 2007 rhetoric retained its usual level of finger-pointing and hot air. Here are highlights of the press release I received less than an hour ago.
Roger Goodell: "What we have seen for the past year is a very strong consumer demand for NFL Network... Our commitment to the NFL Network is stronger than ever."
NFL Network CEO Steve Bornstein: "NFL Network is a programming service of great interest to fans and should be broadly distributed by the cable industry. The only channel devoted 24/7 to America's favorite sport is not programming that should be relegated to a poorly promoted, pay-extra sports tier that takes advantage of our fans' passion for the NFL. A few of the biggest cable operators have refused to negotiate. We call on them to do what's right for their consumers and negotiate agreements for NFL Network that make sense for everybody."
Basically, the NFL wants cable networks (and subscribers, ultimately) to pay for their creation of a multi-billion team-controlled pseudo-media outlet. The NFL is not exactly struggling financially, and the owners are a stubborn and self-important bunch, so they'll certainly wait it out. They still believe that fans can be manipulated into demanding the NFL Network and that a PR battle will tip the scales. They may be right, and I don't see them backing off, even as it begins to expose the limitations of even the NFL's power.
Welcome to Greed-Off 2008.
8. Like all authors of prediction columns, I will slink away quietly when I'm wrong
The great thing about tossing out bogus rumors and faulty predictions, it appears, is that you're rarely called on it later. The best thing to do in these situations is to simply quietly slink away and wait for people to forget about them. If this column does bad enough, I might even try to figure out how to delete it, a la ESPN, or simply hope that no one remembers it, which is nearly a guarantee with my writing.
So, if you never hear of this column again, it will mean that I was right about being wrong. If you hear about it again, it will mean that I was right about being right.
It's a no-lose proposition. Best. Column. Ever. Merry Christmas to me!
Subscribe to the feed version of OBR News-o-rama in a feed reader.
